A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
