Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
